Why our findings seemed to predict what’s happening in Scotland

In May 2014, together with Céline Colombo we carried out an experiment on the Scottish independence referendum at BLUE Lab at the University of Edinburgh.

Assuming that the results of the experiment are representative of the trends in the electorate, they somewhat predicted the increase in the Yes votes which has recently happened. Since voters have become more informed about the issue of independence over the last few months, this increase of information has reduced indecision and has benefited especially the Yes camp, because independence carries more uncertainties and risks than keeping the status quo.

The idea is that reading convincing arguments has a stronger effect on the Yes side, because it contributes to reducing the uncertainties of independence to an ‘acceptable’ level, thus voting Yes becomes less a ‘leap of faith’ and a more considered choice.

A summary of the findings is available in the press release prepared by the University of Edinburgh, while the full paper is available here.

This entry was posted in -(meta) English, Political behaviour, Public opinion, Scottish referendum. Bookmark the permalink.

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